Daily Archives: October 16, 2012

One of my favorite posts from optionpit.com

When is the Best Time to Buy Option Premium?

Option traders, today we want to get a little more philosophical than we normally.  As you know, last week I spent much of the time pointing out that several stocks were hitting multi-year implied volatility lows:  GOOG and AAPL to name just a few,.  Even names like the banks and XLF are starting to get ‘cheap.’  This led us to the question:  when is the best time to buy option premium?

From a market makers perspective, I would argue that this is a hard question to answer.  Obviously, like all traders, market makers would love to be able to buy the absolute bottom of the barrel in volatility.  However, it tends not to work that way.  Take a look at the chart below from LiveVolPro:

aapl_12.JPG

livevol (r) http://www.livevol.com

If I didn’t tell you specifically that this is a graph of AAPL option IV, you might think that it was a biotech that had an FDA announcement go against it.  You could easily think that it is a stock price.  A good market maker trades options like it is a stock price.  He or she makes a market AROUND the volatility, not to actually take a position in volatility.  No market maker would choose to put on a big position into AAPL earnings (although they are often forced to).  Basically, market makers try to begin to accumulate options when vols are really cheap and build a position then.  This allows them to sell the options on the way up.  It is how they manage demand.

But what about the retail trader?  Should the retail trader try to pick bottoms and tops in options?  One could make an argument that they should in some of the index products, but in truth, probably not.  The difference between the market maker and the retail trader is the money and margin.  Typically, a market maker can always afford to buy more or sell more of something (when they consistently can’t, that is a sign they are going to blow out someday).  Retail traders do not have that luxury.  They typically get one or may 2 times to pick the bottom or top, and then they are often out of dough.

Thus, I would argue that retail traders should not try to pick bottoms and tops, but actually try to pick the ‘hump.’  By this I mean, traders should wait until volatility ticks up off a bottom or down off a top and then jump in.  It can be tempting to try and pick points, but unless you have the ability to go in to a trade 3-5 times and do more, one should not attempt to pick bottoms and tops on straight volatility.

Naked positions should be done on the round, not on the top or the bottom.  Does this also apply to spreads?  Kind of.  I would always argue that spreads give the trader better abilities to initiate a good trade.  We at option pit would much rather see a condor or butterfly sold because the trader perceived the spread as expensive vs. something mechanical like days to expiration.  The former shows domain knowledge; the later shows that a trader can read a calendar.

This Is What a Hedged Market Looks Like

This is the kind of content that is consistently put forth over at optionpit.com 

Posted by msebastian on Mon, 10/15/2012 – 4:26pmI have been commenting for sometime why I do not see a sell off on the horizon.  I see a fully hedged market place right now.  But what does a fully hedged market look like?  It looks like this:

Take a look at realized volatility on 10 and 20 day historical volatility.

SPX_0.png

Livevol (R) http://www.livevol.com

HV is currently at 7.9%,  this is in the toilet low.  In fact, when the VIX was near 14,  HV was actually higher than it currently is now.  The VIX is trading between 15 and 16,  Double the value of realized volatility.

VIX1.PNG

Livevol (R) http://www.livevol.com

Why is HV lower than it was when the VIX was 14, than it is when the VIX is near 16?  The reason,  a fully hedged market.  Traders are holding lots of collars and put against generally long positions.  This as we stated last week is going to make sell offs very tough.

But, you say, I think we are going to have some trouble next spring.  I go out and buy long term VIX futures…. Bad idea.

VIX_2.PNG

http://www.vixcentral.com

For how overpriced the VIX cash is, the long term futures are even worse.  I think the VIX is expensive at 100% of HV,  however,  with May trading near 24,  long term vol is about 200% of realized volatility.  Long term futures look like such a bad idea in the near and long term.

The Trade:

If you think the VIX is going up, with Skew steep in SPX I would be looking to won put spreads.  However, we think there is a rally coming with a drop in vol.  This is a great set up for Butterflies and put spreads.